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Abstract Thermal stress is expected to compromise the persistence of tropical corals throughout their biogeographic ranges, making many reefs inhospitable to corals by the end of the century. We integrated models of local predictions of thermal stress throughout the coming century, coral larval dispersal, and the persistence of a coral’s metapopulation(s) in the Caribbean to investigate broad trends in metapopulation fragmentation and decline. As coral reef patches become inhospitable throughout the next century, the metapopulation of Orbicella annularis is predicted to fragment, with sub-networks centered around highly connected patches and thermal refuges. Some of these are predicted to include the reefs of Colombia, Panama, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, Southern and Northern Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas. Unknown coral population demographic parameters, such as lifetime egg production and stock-recruitment rates, limit the model’s predictions; however, a sensitivity analysis demonstrates that broadscale patterns of fragmentation and metapopulation collapse before the end of the century are consistent across a range of potential parameterizations. Despite dire predictions, the model highlights the potential value in protecting and restoring coral populations at strategic locations that are highly connected and/or influential to persistence. Coordinated conservation activities that support local resilience at low coral cover have the potential to stave off metapopulation collapse for decades, buying valuable time. Thermal refuges are linchpins of metapopulation persistence during moderate thermal stress, and targeted conservation or restoration that supports connectivity between these refuges by enhancing local population growth or sexual propagation may be critically important to species conservation on coral reefs. 

Abstract Major oil spills immensely impact the environment and society. Coastal fishery-dependent communities are especially at risk as their fishing grounds are susceptible to closure because of seafood contamination threat. During the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) disaster for example, vast areas of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) were closed for fishing, resulting in coastal states losing up to a half of their fishery revenues. To predict the effect of future oil spills on fishery-dependent communities in the GoM, we develop a novel framework that combines a state-of-the-art three-dimensional oil-transport model with high-resolution spatial and temporal data for two fishing fleets—bottom longline and bandit-reel—along with data on the social vulnerability of coastal communities. We demonstrate our approach by simulating spills in the eastern and western GoM, calibrated to characteristics of the DWH spill. We find that the impacts of the eastern and western spills are strongest in the Florida and Texas Gulf coast counties respectively both for the bandit-reel and the bottom longline fleets. We conclude that this multimodal spatially explicit quantitative framework is a valuable management tool for predicting the consequences of oil spills at locations throughout the Gulf, facilitating preparedness and efficient resource allocation for future oil-spill events.